As Metroblogging reports earlier today, the Washington state Supreme Court is expected to announce its decision tomorrow in Andersen v. King County, the gay marriage case that weighs the Evergreen state's constitutional guarantees of equal protection and immunities against what by some accounts is a drumbeat of popular opinion that deeply frowns upon such equal justice.
The consolidated case [two superior courts had tossed out the state gay marriage ban] specifically addresses Washington's Defense of Marriage Act. The opinion is expected to be divided, perhaps close. The fact that the court has announced ahead of time that there are concurrences and dissents, and that they will be available online via the Washington courts' website, suggests as much. All day, since we caught wind of this decision this morning, we've been attempting to divine the court's smoke signals. Though it's always dangerous to predict what a supreme court will do ahead of time, WWP's sources say the odds are in favor of a gay-friendly decision -- but only by a narrow margin, and only then, on the narrowest of arguments.
Our main source, The Bard of Ballard, opines:
I expect they will overturn the act on narrow grounds with lots of concurrences. They will kick the remedy over to the legislature. It will be closer than we supposed. And the backlash is going to be something awful.
He later adds:
Just from what I know of the justices, I see 6-3 on a good day or 5-4 on any other day. [A] friend ... thinks the chief will make it 7-2 to avoid being a Plessy chief justice, but he has a tough race from a well-funded property rights nut this year, so I don't see it.
I think the conservatives always get po-faced because for keeping the base agitated. Losing and being angry is always better than winning and losing a big issue.
We'll know it all tomorrow, probably earlier rather than later. Expect a decision as early as 8 a.m., here.
And then, let the fallout begin.
We wonder: To what degree, if any, will the political fallout resemble 2004's debacle of locally and legislatively induced gay marriage in Oregon? Or not?
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